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  • White, Gray and Black Swans
    xi ty SEPTEMBER 2009 FORECASTING & FUTURISM | 17 Feedback. Agent interactions include positive and ... Pagels, 1988 WHITE, gRAY And BLACk SWAnS | fROM PAgE 17 When one is lost, any map will do This incident ...

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    • Authors: Alan Mills
    • Date: Sep 2009
    • Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
    • Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
    • Topics: Health & Disability
  • Introduction to Forecasting Methods for Actuaries
    relationships. Generally not used Widely used [17, 18] [19] CONTINUED ON PAGE 8 8 | FORECASTING ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_neural_network 17 Armstrong, J. S. (2001). Principles of Forecasting: ...

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    • Authors: Alan Mills
    • Date: Sep 2009
    • Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
    • Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
    • Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
  • Should Actuaries Get Another Job?
    learn about potential behaviors of complex systems.17 3. MiTiGATe foreCAST errorS AND Their iMpACT Taleb’s ... Tools (2nd ed.). Berlin; New York: Springer. 17 Miller, J. H., & Page, S. E. (2007). Complex Adaptive ...

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    • Authors: Alan Mills
    • Date: Sep 2009
    • Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
    • Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
    • Topics: Actuarial Profession; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
  • Best Methods and Practices in Judgmental Forecasting
    forecasts made by experts with unaided judgment.17 BEST PRACTICES In addition to using methods that ... (2001), Chapter 5: Conjoint analysis, pages 145-167. 17 Armstrong (2001), Chapter 6: Judgmental bootstrap- ...

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    • Authors: Alan Mills
    • Date: Jul 2010
    • Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
    • Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
    • Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting